45 dollar per euro in 2007 would lower 4

The weakening of the US currency has not destabilized markets across the Atlantic. And this, despite few signs of nervousness appeared Friday. In November, two more monitored Earth generalist stock market indicators, the Dow and the Standard & Poor's 500 broad index, posted increases in excess of 1 from the previous month, linking there fifth monthly increase in a row for the first and one-sixth for the second month.

Barring major unforeseen developments, the US markets have thus to are heading towards a year of double digit growth after the mixed, 2005. American operators prefer the positive elements that accompany the deterioration of the parity of the dollar: the decline of the inflationary risks, a Federal Reserve that has suspended the rate increases and the gradual nature of the cyclical deceleration of the economy of the country. As a result, recipients prospects of the companies listed in the United States appear not seriously in danger (read also page 7). The results of the third quarter have been generous: 19 by mass of one year to year. Despite a certain price volatility, the crude oil will not flies. The weight of the component of real estate in the consumer price index has declined in recent months. What makes say to François Trahan, responsible for strategy at Bear Stearns, "future monetary policy of the US Central Bank hard seem improbable."

With regard to evolution continued smooth landing. This vision is soon challenged by market economists. Those of Merrill Lynch are among the few who do not exclude a real crisis in the United States. "Need to prepare, at best, in 2007 less than its historical average growth", alert, while considering, however, that the world economy is better resist that planned the braking in the United States.

9 in Europe

If this table is embodied, American companies benefit from the supplement of competitiveness on external markets brought by a weakened dollar without, however, the negative effects of an outbreak of energy costs. The US industry, in particular, has a great need to make progress in competitiveness.

According to the latest index calculated by the ISM purchasing directors and published Friday, for the first time since April 2003, the manufacturing sector has entered a phase of contraction in November, "reflecting a significant deceleration of activity", says Marie - Pierre Ripert, Economist at Ixis Corporate and Investment Bank. Very different are the consequences for European societies to a greenback weakened to the single currency. Some 30 of the profits accumulated groups belonging to the S & P Europe 350 index are generated outside the euro area, calculates Clive McDonnell, responsible for the European Standard & Poor's strategy. Assuming annual average exchange rates of the euro for 2006 and 2007 of 1.26 dollar and 1.37 dollar respectively, the expert concluded that firms admitted to the aforementioned index 2007 results would be taken up to 2.7. A scenario more pessimistic, built around an annual average parity of 1.45 dollar per euro in 2007, would lower 4.4 discounted benefits in respect of the coming fiscal year.

Today, the consensus of analysts table on an increase of 9 of the profits of European companies in the S & P Europe 350 index. That is why, in November, in contrast to their counterparts across the Atlantic, the awards of the old Continent made grey mine in the erosion of the greenback and the significant appreciation of the single currency. Last month, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index suffered a loss of 2.