The authorities have choice of the resume in hand

Markets hold their breath. With the closure of the Tokyo Stock Exchange because of day holiday at the Japan, operators and investors will have to wait this morning the opening of the European places to find out if the weekend long efforts by Governments and the great paymaster of the planet have borne fruit. Both the G7 that that of the Eurogroup, participants have not spared their sentence in an attempt to stem the financial crisis which resulted last week the world market in a downward spiral is not recall the darkest hours of the major historical crashes.

But the panic which won Saturday and Sunday squares of rating in the Middle East including binding the United Emirates, yet growing, to guarantee deposits of banks does not bode well. The fall of the course of crude, fell significantly under $ 80 per barrel because of fears of world recession, has reinforced doubts about the fate of the oil monarchies of the Gulf foreign investments estimated at approximately 2,500 billion.

In the opinion of experts, the confidence, essential for the stability of the markets, will be difficult to restore. To become gregarious and irrational behaviour, public authorities have so far been helpless to stem the fall of stock prices, as their initiatives, often disparate and sometimes contradictory, gave the impression of a certain cacophony.

But if there is a situation that scholars hate above all, it is to feel that there is more pilot in the plane, that person does the bar during the storm. The New York Stock Exchange is certainly managed to limit the case Friday with a Dow Jones that contained its losses to 1.49. This sketch of resistance would almost be figure to rally after seven consecutive sessions of decline which saw the US market plunged 21 and return under the 8,500 points, the lowest since end of April 2003. But this attempt at stabilization intervened at the end of a session of madness where dumbfounded operators saw volatility confine to the climax. In phase with the nightmare of the seats, Wall Street first fell to 8.12 shortly after the opening before Ironing Board briefly into positive territory half an hour later, and then plunge back into the Red late morning and retry without success a rebound in the last half-hour exchanges.

A decline deemed excessive

For some, this volatility, which has soared to heights the Himalayan levels observed in the crash of 1987 , coupled to the increase in the volumes of transactions, would be sign that the expected capitulation heralds the movement final panic, and thus the low market point is near.

More strategists and analysts agree that the decline in stock markets is excessive measures and with valuations. François Chevallier, VP Finance, observed that, within 3.200 points, the CAC 40 regained its levels of 10 years so that, at the same time, the consensus of the results was multiplied by about 2.5. The shares have become cheaper than private obligations. Above all, levels of valuation anticipate a decrease in the profits of 40 in the United States and almost 50 in Europe. Which, in the opinion of François Chevallier, is unrealistic, even in the prospect of a recession. It is the sign that the fall of the shares does not have much to do with the fundamental classical. The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers triggered a serious crisis of confidence in the banking system, already weakened by bad real estate loans and the opacity of credit derivatives. The authorities have choice of the resume in hand. It is the price that the markets could benefit from a technical rebound, as it happened often during the phases of a crash. For Jean-Marie Mercadal, Manager at FIO, the conditions for a more sustainable recovery of the shares are however not yet met given the economic uncertainties.